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Writer's pictureEmily Clogg

Iga Swiatek: Wimbledon favourite and... underdog?

At the time of writing (the evening of the 7th July), world number one Iga Swiatek is the bookies' favourite to win the Venus Rosewater Dish.


It's pretty rare for her not to be the bookies' favourite in a tournament nowadays, to be honest.


The Pole's reign at the top of the women's tour has lasted an impressive 66 weeks so far - the 11th most of any female player.


Yes, women's tennis has been going through a bit of a slump in recent years, but things are looking up once again. A big three is beginning to form - Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, and Iga Swiatek.


Arguably similar to the big three that have dominated the ATP tour for so long (Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, without wanting to state the obvious), each player has a preferred court.


You could argue that Djokovic is pretty well-balanced but, for the purpose of the point I'm making, his preferred surface is a hard court.


For Sabalenka, I would say that's hard, too. The Belarusian has a 70% career win rate on hard courts, and a 68% on clay. Grass? 59%.


Sabalenka and Rybakina embrace at the end of the 2023 Australian Open final
Sabalenka and Rybakina put on a show in the 2023 AO final

Her only Grand Slam to date came at the Australian Open earlier this year, beating Rybakina 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the final.


As for Sabalenka's WTA career finals summary, she has an 11-4 win rate on hard courts, 2-4 on clay, and 0-2 on grass.


Elena Rybakina is an impressive player on all surfaces with similar win rates on each, though her grass court percentage just comes out on top.


I'd like to take a moment to appreciate that, when talking surfaces, statistics can be skewed. There are far more hard court tournaments than clay, and far more clay court tournaments than grass.


This gives players' grass court statistics a much smaller sample size. There are fewer opportunities to lose matches compared to hard court, where your win rate can take a big hit due to the sheer number of matches in front of you.


Regardless, they are still a useful tool.


Just like Sabalenka, Rybakina has also won one Grand Slam title - Wimbledon 2022.


The Kazakh has an ideal grass court game. As former US Open champion Andy Roddick put it: "She’s the best grass-court player in the world".


Elena Rybakina holding the 2023 Wimbledon trophy
Rybakina's serve makes her a big grass court threat

As the fastest of the three surfaces, grass courts favour big servers. Rybakina leads the race for the most aces on the tour so far this year - 316.


In comparison, Sabalenka has hit 231 aces, and Swiatek just 63.


Naturally, it wouldn't be a stretch to assume the defending champion would be the favourite to take home the title once again.


Rybakina, however, is recovering from a viral illness that saw her withdraw from Roland Garros back in June.


This severely hampered her Wimbledon preparations, causing her to miss the Eastbourne International and throwing her into the deep end in SW19.


But where are you going with this? How does this all relate to Swiatek's Wimbledon?


Sabalenka and Rybakina found themselves in each other's half of the draw at Wimbledon - Swiatek is in the other.


It's not been a straightforward grass court career for the world number one so far. She has a 64% win rate on the surface.


Iga Swiatek hitting a backhand at Wimbledon
Grass is Swiatek's weakest surface

As previously mentioned, grass courts suit those who boast a big and powerful serve, something Swiatek is still developing.


In fact, I'd say her serve is the weakest point of her game.


Swiatek is an aggressive player who likes to be on the front foot and dictate every point. Her biggest strengths lie in her strokes, movement, and agility.


She consistently generates amongst the highest topspin rates on the women's tour - this is an element of tennis that excels your clay court game due to the fact that the ball bounces higher than on grass.


In the 2020 Roland Garros final, Swiatek's RPM (revolutions per minute) reached a staggering 3453, a number similar to the average of her idol and greatest clay court player of all time, Rafael Nadal.


When you break it down, it's easy to see why grass is Swiatek's least comfortable surface.


A trip down memory lane takes us to 2018, though, where everything I've just said perhaps seems rather... odd.


Iga Swiatek hitting a forehand at Roland Garros
Swiatek is exceptional on clay

Iga Swiatek never won junior Roland Garros, despite having already won it three times at senior level now.


Neither did she win the junior US Open, winning the senior equivalent in 2022.


Nor the junior Australian Open.


Swiatek won junior Wimbledon. Unseeded.


Wimbledon was her only singles junior title.


It seems crazy to say, considering her dominance on clay, strong showings on hard and, well, lacklustre grass court performances.


The Pole's incredible 37-match winning streak throughout the first half of last season came to a staggering halt in south west London, falling to Alize Cornet in straight sets in the third round.


More recently, Swiatek said: "It's getting easier every year to convert my clay-court style to more grass-court style".


All things considered, the 2023 Wimbledon draw has fallen pretty kindly to the world number one.


Iga Swiatek with the 2018 junior Wimbledon title
Swiatek won the junior Wimbledon title in 2018

Swiatek's projected quarter-final, following the seeding order? Coco Gauff.


Coco Gauff's 2023 Wimbledon hopes? Squandered in the first round.


A shock exit for the world number six at the hands of grand slam winner Sofia Kenin has opened up the Pole's side of the draw.


After defeating Petra Martic 6-2 7-5 in the third round, Swiatek has advanced to the round of 16 at Wimbledon, equalling her best run at the competition.


And she has done so in straight sets.


Both Sabalenka and defending champion Rybakina have already dropped sets against Varvara Gracheva and Shelby Rogers respectively.


Swiatek's next match will see her face the 14th seed Belinda Bencic, an opponent with the potential to cause the world number one some big issues.


The Swiss player has the third most grass titles on the WTA tour since 2013.


Strangely, though, she has often disappointed at Wimbledon. Bencic crashed out in the first round of the tournament both last year and the year before.


Still, it will be Swiatek's biggest challenge so far. Whoever wins will be advancing to their first-ever Wimbledon quarter-final.


Win this match, and four-time grand slam winner Swiatek will be in a very good position.


The best player on the tour, but uncomfortable on grass. The favourite, but the underdog.


Could she make it five?
















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